Is Redbook right.?

[Felix]

The data we get is old. If you are a dealer and pay for the premium service then you can get more accurate prices. Don't forget, it takes into account damaged bike sales and trade-ins. All they give you is the average.

Take a sledge hammer to the fairings and see who want's to pay full price on any brand new bike. They obviously have to discount the price accordingly, which leads to lower average prices. If you think about it, damage to a car/bike reduces the value of the car/bike beyond the repair cost.

Add to that a lot of bikes get bashed around - the evidence is in the insurance premiums.

Use the info as a rough guide, and be prepared to pay a couple of $k more for a bike in better than average condition.

[James]

Didnt you know that sarcasm is the lowest form of wit?

Who actually said that anyway... Someone with no sense of humour I bet...

Yeah I reckon so, which would eliminate the bloke who writes the Redbook - seems to me that he has one hell of a sense of humour!

[MadKaw]

Yeh, the whole redbook thing is really odd. For example the zx9 prices, I believe, are a little high as they are with a lot of other bikes I checked but the zx10 prices they state are way to low. I haven't seen a 10 going for anywhere near those prices. Perhaps theres a lot of damaged ones deflating the pricing... Or there crap at darts...

[KLR]

My answer is is you find a bike that you like and it is just a bit out of the price range you are after and cut 20% off and make an offer.

6 times out of ten it will work as most people want to get rid of their bikes for a pressing reason.

Say a 10R prices at $15,500 minus the 20% which works out at the suprising amount of $12400 that the redbook states. I reckon if you got a keen seller you would probably walk away paying $13k ish after you haggle.

[Nanna10r]

Daveness i think i remember the $12600 "criminal" exchanged hands during the "Meat wagon ride to Royal Prince Alfred.".
Keep a looking bound to find a "crim" down on his luck or private health care coverage.
Cheers Brett
PS Isn't Redbook Yappa's refidex to Short Stay hotels ?

[I-K]

Didnt you know that sarcasm is the lowest form of wit?

Who actually said that anyway... Someone with no sense of humour I bet...

Nah, it was someone who got zinged and had no comeback...

...as for Redbook, here's my theory. See if this sound plausible...

They can, realistically, only source their data from two places; widely-cirulated advertising (Trading Post, AMCT, Bikepoint, etc), and market values quoted on rego transfer forms submitted to roads authorities.

Ie, if I may resort to maths,

if
N_a=total number of a particular model of bike advertised for sale
p_a,i=asking price of the ith bike advertised for sale
N_t=total number of a particular model of bike changing hands
p_t,i=market value listed on rego transfer form of ith bike changing hands

Redbook calculate their average secondhand value P as,

P=(1/N_a)\sum{p_a,i}+(1/N_t)\sum{p_t,i}

Being more keenly sought-after by people who are philosophically opposed to paying new-bike prices, a lower proportion of late-model bikes makes it into widely-circulated advertising; they get snapped up through word of mouth. Consequently, when Redbook compile their price guide, they have proportionally more market values quoted on rego transfer forms than advertised prices to go off.

Now, since it's unaustralian to not quote a grossly reduced market value on your rego transfer form so as to get out of paying too much stamp duty, the prices Redbook can glean from the roads authorities are all way lower than what the bikes are actually selling for, and, consequently, the price guide Redbook publish comes in below the market reality.

Of course, advertised prices are all inflated, but, for the case of newer bikes, there aren't enough of them to offset the low values quoted on the transfer forms.

Further, the older a bike is, the more unrealistic the advertised price for it is likely to be; plenty of people still seem to think their GPz900R is worth $3500. Further still, roads authorities are not likely to be the easiest people on earth to extract information from, so, if a particular model of bike has a healthy enough representation in the classifieds, chances are Redbook won't bother with querying roads authorities about them, and they'll base their guide price on advertised sale prices alone.

End result; Redbook's quoted prices for late model bikes are lower than the market reality, and higher than the market reality for older bikes.

To answer your question, Dave, those 12 grand 10R's are to be found on forms submitted to the RTA, after they changed hands for 15 grand.

[aardvark]

P=(1/N_a)\sum{p_a,i}+(1/N_t)\sum{p_t,i}

Yeah, that's what I thought.....

[Duane]

P=(1/N_a)\sum{p_a,i}+(1/N_t)\sum{p_t,i}

Yeah, that's what I thought.....

I thought it was P=(X + T) - M
P=Price
X=wallet(Width/Weight)
T=Mr bank manager
M= Mina the debt collector

[I-K]

P=(1/N_a)\sum{p_a,i}+(1/N_t)\sum{p_t,i}

Yeah, that's what I thought.....

As you should... being an administrator, you'd hope it would take more than some highschool maths to rattle you.

[mrmina]

I read that somewhere so it must be true..

Believe everything u read

"MINA IS THE BEST"

"NEKA IS A FAG"

"DAN IS NEKA'S SECRET LOVER"

[diesel]

N_a=total number of a particular model of bike advertised for sale
p_a,i=asking price of the ith bike advertised for sale
N_t=total number of a particular model of bike changing hands
p_t,i=market value listed on rego transfer form of ith bike changing hands

Redbook calculate their average secondhand value P as,

P=(1/N_a)\sum{p_a,i}+(1/N_t)\sum{p_t,i}

mate, why the complex algebra?

couldn't it look something like this?
x=total number of a particular model of bike advertised for sale
y=asking price of a particular bike advertised for sale
t=total number of a particular model of bike changing hands
s=market value listed on rego transfer form of a particular bike changing hands

therefore:

P=(1/x)\sum(y+(1/t)\s)

?????

i'm probably way off but your reasoning interests me in some curious way.

cheers, vince

[I-K]

1. I like subscripts.

2. To illustrate the fact that the prices come from two distinct sources, one commercial (classifieds) and one bureaucratic (motor registry bodies), you do need first two sums, and then two averages, in your equation.

3. Feel free to now rap me over the knuckles for bodging the equation just the same, because I added the two averages instead of averaging them. My bad. To show what I intend to show and still give you an accurate average, it should be

P=(N_aN_t/(N_a+N_t))(1/N_a)\sum{p_a,i}+(1/N_t)\sum{p_t,i}

or

P=(\sum{p_a,i}+\sum{p_t,i})/(N_a+N_t)

Other than though, does the basic hypothesis about the two sources for secondhand prices and the way they interplay differently for newer and older bikes make sense as an explanation for why Redbook is off the mark the way it is?

[tape]

Being in a consumer affairs field I deal with real price for worth type stuff...thingies....

Caveat Emptor

If ya think it's worth it buy it, just don't farkin whinge after ya got it when you see a better price elsewhere.

cheers it's nearing Jimmy o'clock.

[diesel]

1. I like subscripts.

fair enough.

3. Feel free to now rap me over the knuckles for bodging the equation just the same

Bad man, consider your knuckles rapped!

of course i noticed that straight away

[KLR]

After everything what is the actual budget for the 000 replacement? if you dont mind me asking of course.